Texas Partisan Index: Ranking of seats in new houses from most Republican to most Democratic
Barring a court order or surprise veto from Governor Greg Abbott, the state is on track to hold the 2022 primary election as initially planned.
The period for submitting candidatures to be entered on the ballot will be from November 29 to December 13, 2021. The primary election will take place on March 1, 2022 and the secondary elections will take place on May 24, 2022.
With a few exceptions, the new State House card bolsters support for most incumbents seeking re-election.
But while the card is likely to lead to less competitive general elections for most state-level races at the district level, a litany of retirements and members seeking election to a higher office will leave. many open seats to more competitive primary races.
Compare the evolution of partisan trends in each neighborhood, Texan compiled the Texas Partisan Index (TPI).
The index is based on district-level results in the 2018 and 2020 state general elections using data obtained from the Texas Legislative Council.
For each year, the TPI identifies the median percentage of votes in each district for Republicans compared to Democrats, excluding third-party candidates. The median result for each year is then averaged and rounded to a whole number.
The median vote for Republicans statewide was 53.7% in 2018 and 54.8% in 2020, so the state as a whole has a current TPI of R-54%. This is a notable drop from Statewide TPI 2016-2018 of R-56%.
Likewise, there has been a noticeable shift towards Democrats at the State House level. Between the two odds, the number of competitive seats between an R-55% and D-55% TPI fell from 25 to 33, with just four competitive seats – all in South Texas or along the border – taking place. moving to the Republicans.
But the new map approved by the state legislature reduces the number of competitive districts from 33 to just eight. Three are in favor of the Republicans, three in favor of the Democrats and two are evenly distributed:
- House District (HD) 54, currently represented by Rep. Brad Buckley (R-Killeen), went from R-52% under the old map to R-55% with the new one.
- HD 52, currently represented by Rep. James Talarico (D-Round Rock) who is now running for a different Democratic-leaning seat in Travis County, has gone from D-53% to R-55%.
- HD 112, currently represented by Representative Angie Chen Button (R-Richardson), went from R-52% to R-55%.
- HD 118, currently vacant with a running second round between a Republican and a Democrat, fell from D-57% to par.
- HD 70, currently represented by retired Rep Scott Sanford (R-McKinney) who was also drawn to another district, went from R-62% to peer.
- HD 37, currently represented by Rep Alex Dominguez (D-Brownsville) who was drawn to another district, went from D-64% to D-53%.
- HD 80, currently represented by Rep. Tracy King (D-Batesville), went from D-61% to D-53%.
- HD 115, currently represented by Rep Julie Johnson (D-Carrollton), remained the same at D-55%.
A table with the full list of TPI odds that compares old and new cards can be found below.
Note that the listed cardholders are members who live within the new district boundaries according to the new card or who have announced their intention to run for that district. Members who have announced their retirement or who are running for a higher function are excluded.
A regularly updated list of available places is available on Texan‘s War room 2022.
|District||Holder (s)||Old TPI card||New TPI card|
|68||Back-up valve (R)||R-85%||R-86%|
|03||Cecil Bell (D)||R-76%||R-79%|
|01||Van Deaver (R)||R-76%||R-75%|
|13||N / A||R-79%||R-72%|
|04||Keith Bell (D)||R-74%||R-72%|
|73||N / A||R-76%||R-71%|
|85||Stephenson * (D)||R-57%||R-68%|
|126||Without harness (R)||R-54%||R-62%|
|127||N / A||R-61%||R-61%|
|29||Ed Thompson (D)||R-55%||R-60%|
|93||N / A||R-54%||R-60%|
|57||N / A||R-77%||R-60%|
|122||N / A||R-59%||R-60%|
|65||N / A||J-51%||R-58%|
|61||N / A||R-84%||R-58%|
|63||N / A||R-67%||R-57%|
|133||N / A||R-58%||R-57%|
|52||N / A||D-53%||R-55%|
|70||N / A||R-62%||SAME|
|37||N / A||D-64%||D-53%|
|80||Tracy King (D)||J-61%||D-53%|
|115||Julie Johnson (D)||D-55%||D-55%|
|134||Ann Johnson (D)||D-55%||D-57%|
|74||Morales, Jr. (D)||D-52%||D-58%|
|76||N / A||D-78%||J-61%|
|114||N / A||D-52%||D-65%|
|120||Gervin Hawkins (D)||D-66%||D-67%|
|116||Martinez Fischer (D)||D-68%||D-68%|
|143||Ana Hernandez (D)||J-70%||D-69%|
|90||Romero, Jr. (D)||D-75%||J-70%|
|75||Mary GonzÃ¡lez (D)||J-71%||D-72%|
|139||Jarvis Johnson (D)||D-76%||D-75%|
|142||Dutton, Jr. (D)||D-77%||D-76%|
|77||Ortega / Ordaz PÃ©rez (D / D)||J-70%||D-78%|
|109||Sherman, Sr. (D)||D-84%||J-80%|
|141||Senfronia Thompson (D)||D-85%||D-84%|
*Representing. Phil Stephenson (R-Wharton) is listed by the Texas Ethics Commission as living in Wharton, believed to be in HD 85, but is listed as associated with Representative Jacey Jetton (R-Richmond) by the Texas Legislative Council .